Research

Spillover effects of cash transfers: Reanalysis of Egger et al. (2022) (pdf, code), September 2024.

As part of GiveWell’s evaluation of GiveDirectly, I reanalyzed Egger et al. (2022) on the general equilibrium effects of a cash transfer program in Kenya. I find mixed evidence that spillovers accrue to richer households. The main findings are robust.

Do gasoline price shocks during adolescence reduce driving as an adult? A replication exercise (pdf, code), June 2024.

I reanalyze the results in Severen and Bethem (2022). I find supporting evidence for the claim that gas price shocks reduce adult driving, with different effects for price increases and decreases.

Administrative procedures as tax enforcement tools, with Jeff Hicks and Wei Cui, Economics Letters, April 2024.

Why do Chinese firms report income just above a threshold that doubles their tax rate?

Do subway openings reduce air pollution? A replication exercise (pdf, code), March 2024.

I reanalyze the results in Gendron-Carrier et al. (2022). I find that the main result (new subways in high-pollution cities reduce pollution) is robust, while the effects for low-pollution cities are mixed.

Can we detect the long-run effects of the measles vaccine? Replicating Atwood and Pearlman (2023) (pdf, code), February 2024.

I run the same analysis from my comment on Atwood (2022) in the context of the Mexico measles vaccine, and again find that the results are explained by trends.

The Long-Term Effects of Measles Vaccination on Earnings and Employment: Comment (html, pdf, code), January 2024.

I run an event study and find that the results in Atwood (2022) are explained by trends, instead of a treatment effect of the vaccine.
Extended Commentary on Atwood (2022), (pdf, code): additional results on the the event study, heterogeneous effects, plotting the raw data, redoing the disease event study, and more.

The Effect of High-Tech Clusters on the Productivity of Top Inventors: Comment (summary, html, pdf, code, code walkthrough video), November 2023.

I show that the results from the event study and IV regressions in Moretti (2021) are caused by coding errors.
Extended Commentary on Moretti (2021) (pdf, code): additional results on the event study and IV, heterogeneity by top-10% and bottom-90% inventors, heterogeneity by movers and stayers, testing the mechanism, imputing missing observations, and more.

Can we detect the effects of racial violence on patenting? Reanalyzing Cook (2014) (html, pdf, code), September 2023. Published in Econ Journal Watch, Oct. 2024.

The results in Cook (2014) don’t hold up to scrutiny.
Response to referee reports (Economic Inquiry)

Replicating the literature on prefecture-level meritocratic promotion in China (html, pdf, code), September 2023. (2020 version). Published in Research and Politics, Feb. 2024.

A popular idea is that Chinese mayors are promoted based on GDP growth. I show that the evidence in the literature is not robust.

Does meritocratic promotion explain China’s growth? (pdf, code), 2020.

Using my own data, I find no evidence that prefecture leaders are promoted based on GDP growth.